The Leadership Cliff: Why So Many New Managers Fail in Year One, and How to Stop It

There’s a sharp drop off at the leadership cliff: many new managers fall hard in their first year, often without enough warning or support. The truth is, most companies have built a system that sets new leaders up to struggle. Promotions happen fast, but the preparation and support don’t keep pace. The real question is whether we’ll keep absorbing the hidden costs, or finally choose to invest in doing it right.

The Scale of the Problem

• A shocking 60% of new managers fail within the first 24 months of stepping into leadership roles, lacking adequate training and without the skills for effectively leading people. (Wharton Executive Education)

• Another study found that 40% of newly promoted managers or executives don’t succeed within 18 months, especially at more senior levels. (ProventusHR)

• Many new managers report that they never received any training when they transitioned into leadership. (Wharton Executive Education)

These numbers represent lost opportunities, broken cultures, burned-out teams, and wasted investment.

Why the Cliff Exists: Root Causes

Several patterns emerge when you dig into why so many new leaders don’t make it past year one:

1. Promotion Based on Technical Skill, Not Leadership Skills. High-performing individual contributors are often promoted, but the skills needed to be a great contributor are very different from those needed to lead people. Communication, delegation, and conflict management, these often aren’t taught.

2. Lack of Onboarding Into Leadership Roles. Few organizations invest in structured onboarding for new leaders. Many are “thrown in the deep end”, expected to swim without swimming lessons.

3. Insufficient Support & Feedback. Peer support, mentorship, coaching, 360 feedback, these are often inconsistent or missing completely. Without them, mistakes compound, confidence erodes, and burnout is common.

4. Unclear Expectations & Misaligned Culture. New managers often aren’t fully clear on what their role requires, how much authority they have, what success looks like, or how to navigate internal politics. This misalignment often leads to disillusionment.

   
   

The Hidden Costs: Why You Can’t Ignore This Cliff

Falling off the leadership cliff has more than emotional or cultural costs. The financial and strategic costs are real:

• Underprepared new managers lead teams that are less engaged, less productive, and more likely to lose top performers.

• Replacing people (managers or direct reports) is expensive, recruiting, onboarding, lost productivity all add up. Some studies estimate that poor management and leadership churn cost U.S. companies hundreds of billions annually.

• A leader who fails early often sets negative patterns for how they lead for years after, impacting culture, decision-making, and team trust.

  
  

How to Prevent the Fall: Strategies that Work

Climbing back up from the cliff or better yet, avoiding the fall in the first place, requires deliberate effort. Here are strategies that make a difference:

Strategy	Key Elements
1. Structured Onboarding for New Managers	Clear role definitions, expectations, peer mentor/buddy, and early feedback loops.
2. Early Leadership Training	Courses on emotional intelligence, communication, and conflict resolution before or right as people take the lead role.
3. Ongoing Coaching & Peer Learning	External/internal coaching; peer groups to share struggles; safe spaces to question and grow.
4. Clear Metrics & Accountability	Define what success looks like in year one: team engagement, turnover, decision-making; track them; hold leaders and their support structure accountable.
5. Tactical Support During Year One	Regular check-ins, incremental responsibilities, smaller wins, and visibility of support from leadership.

Bottom Line: The Cost of Waiting

Crossing this leadership cliff is about protecting your culture, retaining your people, and securing long-term performance. If you’ve been promoting talent without a strong readiness plan, you’re likely seeing signs: early burnout, high turnover, misalignment between expectations and performance. The sooner you intervene, the sooner you build a leadership bench that can carry your organization forward.